Date: January 4, 2016

 

Where's the Value in These NFL Odds?

 

The NFL has just concluded the 2015-16 regular season and the playoff seedings and first round matchups are set. Just in case you've been living under a rock, the playoff seedings are as follows:

 

AFC

 

1. Denver

 

2. New England

 

3. Cincinnati

 

4. Houston

 

5. Kansas City

 

6. Pittsburgh

 

NFC

 

1. Carolina

 

2. Arizona

 

3. Minnesota

 

4. Washington

 

5. Green Bay

 

6. Seattle

 

The first-round matchups will send Pittsburgh to Cincinnati, Seattle to Minnesota, Kansas City to Houston, and Green Bay to Washington. It should be an exciting and competitive playoffs as both conferences are wide open.

 

Since many experts out there are expecting to see a run from the wild card teams, we decided to take a look at the odds to win the big game in February. It may come as a shock to many to see the prices on each of the teams as we head into wild card weekend. The current odds* are as follows:

 

 Arizona 4.5 to 1

 

New England 4.5 to 1

 

Carolina 5 to 1

 

Denver 6 to 1

 

Seattle 6 to 1

 

Pittsburgh 7 to 1

 

Kansas City 24 to 1

 

Cincinnati 25 to 1

 

Green Bay 35 to 1

 

Minnesota 35 to 1

 

Washington 38 to 1

 

Houston 75 to 1

 

As you can see, the NFC "wild card" team in Seattle has the same odds of winning the title as the #1 seed in the AFC, Denver. By comparison, the other NFC "wild card" team Green Bay has 35 to 1 odds.

 

So the questions are, where's the value in the odds and who's taking home the trophy this February?

 

Regards,

 

Duane

 

High Roller Fund

 

6S Alternatives LLC

 

*Odds courtesy of vegasinsider.com

Date: January 11, 2016

 

Sportsbooks Cheering for Clemson and Over in Championship Game

 

As a multitude of wagers continued pouring in for Monday night's College Football Championship Game, it became more evident that the Vegas and offshore books would like to see the Over as the winner. They also would like to see Clemson cover the 6.5 to 7 point spread. That combination would maximize the books profit on the game.

 

The first key number that Vegas and the offshore books are looking at is 53. Initially, according to several sportsbook managers and personnel, the books took action on the Under 53 (meaning to win the total points scored in the game by both teams will need to be less than 53). Those wagers forced the books to move the total on the game down aggressively. The total for Monday's game closed at 50.5 so the books would also prefer for the game to avoid finishing at 51 or 52 (the other key numbers) as they could be paying out both sides of the wager (Under 53 and Over 50.5). This practice is commonly known as "middling" a game.

 

Overall, the action on the side is heavier towards Alabama. However, it is more balanced than the total as a significant amount of gameday wagers came in on the underdog Tigers.

 

As we catch the game live at the sportsbook here in Vegas, it is a fun, lively and pro-Alabama  crowd. Enjoy the game.

 

Good Luck!

 

Duane

 

High Roller Fund

 

6S Alternatives LLC

Date: January 15, 2016

 

NBA vs. S&P 500z

 

It's been a tough week for the markets. Many of the pundits are putting the recent selloffs on the Feds. Others are going as far as saying the economy isn't nearly as strong as we think and the key metrics are showing signs of a recession.

 

However, as smart investors know, long-term yield is more important than short-term variations. The questions become how long has the downward trend  been in place and could it have been predicted?

 

In several of our articles, we've compared our fund's performance to the S&P 500. While the S&P is the general standard to measure an investment strategy against, we wanted to take a look back to see the trends that are taking place.

 

Below is a ROI comparison between our NBA investments and the S&P.

 

High Roller Fund NBA ROI: +18.2%

 

S&P 500 ROI: (9.09%)*

 

Timeframe for comparison: October 27, 2015 to January 14, 2016 (October 27 was chosen because it was the opening day of the 2015-16 NBA Season).

 

In fairness to the S&P and the shorter-term (~2.5 months) performance for the comparison, we looked back farther to see how the 9% decline compared to its longer-term performance.

 

1-year S&P ROI: (5.62%)*

 

2-year S&P ROI: +1.79%*

 

3-year S&P ROI: +27.72%*

 

4-year S&P ROI: +45.74%*

 

If you look at the S&P from a much longer-term view, the picture becomes quite a bit clearer. Back on January 17, 2012, the S&P opened at a price of 1,290. It closed on January 14, 2016 at 1,880. Perhaps it's not fears of China or interest rates. Perhaps it's a much more simpler explanation. Is it possible that some are taking their profits off the table heading into the holiday weekend?

 

Given that the markets are in a correction, it seems like a great time to re-evaluate the portfolio. Many experts will tell you that it's best to buy when the markets are low.

 

But how low will it go? Is it time to buy or is it time to seek alternatives?

 

Regards,

 

Duane

 

High Roller Fund

 

www.highrollerfund.com

 

6S Alternatives LLC

When Six Sigma meets Alternative Investing , a multi-strategy alternative investment opportunity is born..

Investing involves risk. Investors should consider the objectives, risks, and expenses before participating in the High Roller Fund.